Oceans Empty Of Russians
February 7, 2012: Russia announced that its SSBNs (nuclear powered ballistic missile boats) would resume long range "combat patrols" later this year. In recent years, there have been only about ten such patrols a year, each lasting three months or less. Most have not gone far from Russian waters and some were not even made by SSBNs.
The problem here is that the Russian Navy has not only shrunk since the end of the Cold War in 1991 but it has also become much less active. In the last six years, only about ten of their nuclear subs went to sea on a combat patrol each year. Most of the boats going to sea were SSNs (attack subs), not SSBNs. Most of these trips were short range training missions, which often lasted a few days, or just a few hours. But the true measure of a fleet is the "combat patrol" or "deployment." In the U.S. Navy most of these last from 2-6 months. In the last decade U.S. nuclear subs have carried out ten times as many patrols as their Russian counterparts.
Currently, Russia only has 14 SSBN (nuclear ballistic missile sub) boats in service and not all of them have a full load of missiles. Some lack full crews or have key systems in need of repair. Twelve of the SSBNs are Delta IVs, which are overdue for retirement and rarely got to sea. Russia has only 15 modern, 7,000 ton, Akula SSNs (nuclear attack subs) in service. Actually, three are in reserve, for lack of money and crews, and another has been leased to India. The Akulas began building in the late 1980s and are roughly comparable to the American Los Angeles class. All of the earlier Russian SSNs are trash and most have been decommissioned. There are also seven SSGN (nuclear subs carrying cruise missiles) and 20 diesel electric boats. There is a new class of SSGNs under construction but progress, and promised funding increases, have been slow.
Currently, the U.S. has eight of the new, 7,700 ton, Virginia class SSNs in service, six under construction and 16 more planned. The mainstay of the American submarine force is still the 6,100 ton Los Angeles-class SSN. Sixty-two of these submarines were built, 43 of which remain in front-line service, making it probably the largest class of nuclear submarines that will ever be built. The Seawolf-class of nuclear attack submarines stopped at three from a planned class of twenty-nine. The 8,600 ton Seawolf was designed as a super-submarine, designed to fight the Soviet Navy at its height. Reportedly, it is quieter going 40 kilometers an hour than the Los Angeles-class submarines are at pier side.
The peak year for Russian nuclear sub patrols was 1984, when there were 230. That number rapidly declined until, in 2002, there were none. Since the late 1990s, the Russian navy has been hustling to try and reverse this decline. But the navy budget, despite recent increases, is not large enough to build new ships to replace the current Cold War era fleet that is falling apart. Since the end of the Cold War in 1991, most of the ship building money has gone into new nuclear subs. Six Akulas have been completed in that time, but the first two of a new generation of SSBNs, the Borei class was delayed by technical problems, a new ballistic missile that wouldn't work, and lack of money. The first two Borei class boats, after many delays, are finally ready for service and ended up costing over two billion dollars each. The ballistic missile for the Borei was just approved this year and there won't be enough of them to fill all the Borei silos for over a year.
The Russian admirals made their big mistake in the early 1990s, when the dismantling of the Soviet Union left the second largest fleet in the world with only a fraction of its Cold War budget. Rather than immediately retire ninety percent of those ships, Russia tried to keep many of them operational. This consumed most of the navy budget and didn't work. There were too many ships, not enough sailors and not enough money for maintenance or training at sea. The mighty Soviet fleet is mostly scrap now or rusting hulks tied up at crumbling out-of-the way naval bases.
While Western nuclear subs can last for about thirty years Russian models rarely get past twenty. That means two new SSN or SSGN have to be put into service each year to maintain a force of forty boats. Unless the sub construction budget get billions more dollars a year, that is not going to happen. Right now, the priority is on producing a new class of SSBNs (6 more Boreis are planned or under construction). These Boreis are essential because they carry SLBM (Sea Launched Ballistic Missiles) that provide a critical (they are much harder to destroy in a first strike than land based missiles) portion of the nuclear deterrent. The rest of the Russian armed forces, like most of the navy, is in sad shape and unable to resist a major invasion. Only the ICBMs and SLBMs guarantee the safety of the state. So the way things are going now, in a decade or two, Russia will end up with a force consisting of a dozen SSNs and a dozen SSBNs.
The current fleet of nuclear subs is tiny and the Russians would rather keep them tied up at dock most of the time. The crews can do a lot of training at dockside, and only go to sea a few times a year to check on their state of training. Given the number of accidents their subs have had in the past decade, the training the crews are getting now is not sufficient.
Ahhhh, 1984.....I remember it well! Excellent article and it sums things up pretty well. And remember that most of you reading that article played a role in the demise of the bad guys. That ****, expensive, Akula :)
Arg 1984, better than Orsen Wells.
"Reportedly, it is quieter going 40 kilometers an hour than the Los Angeles-class submarines are at pier side."
That is mind-blowing! How in the world could you possibly pick that out of the clutter!
What I find most concerning is that with their diminishing military ability, they might be more inclined to over-react or take precipitous action. Little guys always seem to like to throw sucker-punches, so they won't get hurt.
And with China and Russia getting cozier all the time, an alarmist might see some growing risk.
Have you come across any such information on the Chinese sub fleet, Jim?
China now has more than 60 subs in its navy, including nine that are nuclear-powered, according to the Pentagon's annual overview last year.
Its mainstay boats are diesel-powered Song-class vessels, but it also is developing more advanced nuclear-powered attack and ballistic submarines, including the Jin class that would carry missiles with a range of 4,600 miles (7,400 kilometers). Nuclear-powered subs can operate longer submerged than their diesel counterparts.
China has a long way to go to match the U.S. Navy _ the advanced Jin subs, for example, would have to be well into the Japan Sea for the continental United States to be within their range.
Here's a link http://www.newser.com/article/d9sbumb80/us-faces-challenge-as-asian-submarine-fleets-swell-sending-battle-for-control-underwater.html
Interesting, Jim. Thanks for the link!
Jim has been posting some interesting and pertinent articles, and some have asked for links to more info. While I don't know where Jim is getting his excellent open-source intel, here are links to some related sites I read regularly.
I read this today, another synopsis of Chinese submarine growth:
http://www.informationdissemination.net/2012/02/plan-conventional-submarine-fleet.html#disqus_thread
That site (http://www.informationdissemination.net) is a wealth of information on Navy matters.
Also,
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/
For military matters in general
http://nosint.blogspot.com/
More Navy-specific news
http://thesubreport.blogspot.com/
Submarine specific news
Just thought I'd add that to this thread for any who may not know about those sites and find them entertaining, as I do!