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Thi seems a good assessment of what's happening right now:
Poland's Prime Minister Needs Anti-Semitic Polish Priest, Not Criminal Minister
Warsaw, Poland 10 July, 2007
In upcoming Polish elections the rural vote will be delivered to Poland's Prime Minister Kaczynski by Radio Maria's Father Rydzyk. But with Former Deputy Prime Minister Lepper's Samoobrona party poll ratings below the 5 percent threshold required to be represented in the Parliament, there is no benefit to Kaczynski to be associate with him. So Rydzyk stays and Lepper goes.
Rydzyk's harsh words for the President and his wife, and his latest anti-semitic remarks, present Kaczynski two problems he must work around. But Kaczynski has shown himself to be flexible.
Prior to taking control of the Government, Kaczynski railed against people dealing with Andrzej Lepper because of his criminal record. But as soon as Kaczynski needed Lepper to take control of the Government, Lepper's criminal activities were swept under the rug. Gone were all the criticisms of Lepper's past.
It can be expected that in a like fashion Kaczynski will find some way to ignore what Rydzyk says about Jews and his family.
Kaczynski's has heavy support in the countryside. And so does Rydzyk.
At the 15 Annual Pilgrimage of the Family of Radio Maria, Kaczynski identified with the crowd when he said, "Poland is here!"
And he showed his admiration for Rydzyk's ability to deliver votes when he said, "Nobody today in Poland can gather so many people and create such an atmosphere like here."
As for Lepper, Kaczynski finally fired him over some tenuous connection to alleged corruption in the Ministry of Agriculture. See Polish Coalition Endangered As Poland's Deputy Prime Minister Is Fired
But even that firing has been qualified with Kaczynski saying that Lepper can come back into the Government if he is finally cleared by the Court. Kaczynski may recognize that Lepper may be guilty of not controlling his Ministry but not guilty of corruption himself.
A member of the opposition political party Civic Platform said that Lepper was fired to shift attention away from Rydzyk and to Lepper. Though denied by Kaczynski's party spokesman, some see it as the first logical step to sweep the Rydzyk comments under the rug.
Because Rydzyk's followers generally pass off any revelations of any unsavory acts by Rydzyk as lies spread by the media, Kaczynski can probably count on his ignoring the remarks to be well taken by them. It is likely to get him votes.
And because the rural voters seem to be fed up with Andrzej Lepper, dumping Lepper might also get him votes.
Kaczynski can be counted on to do whatever he has to do to stay in power.
'Eastern European Rewiew' available at: http://www.masterpage.com.pl/outlook/200707/needspriest.html
a BBC News report.
Polish coalition crisis defused
A junior coalition partner has said it will remain in Poland's conservative government, defusing what had appeared to be an escalating crisis.
The pledge by the Self-Defence Party came despite the dismissal of its leader, Deputy Prime Minister Andrzej Lepper, from the cabinet on Monday.
He said Self-Defence was "staying in the coalition, conditionally".
He demanded proof, by Friday, for claims that he was linked to a huge agricultural corruption scandal.
His dismissal by Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski - prompted by the scandal claims - had raised the possibility of an early election.
It is alleged that millions of dollars was paid in bribes to redesignate agricultural land for commercial use. Mr Lepper - who was also agriculture minister - denies any involvement.
He has ruled out returning to the government.
"We want evidence against me presented by Friday - recordings, allegedly tapes, conversations - please present them to public opinion," Mr Lepper said.
Pressure on government
Earlier, the main opposition parties Civic Platform and Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) submitted motions to dissolve parliament.
But correspondents say the motions are unlikely to be put to a vote before September, as deputies will shortly go on their summer break.
Prime Minister Kaczynski's Law and Justice Party narrowly won parliamentary elections in 2005, but has faced difficulties in implementing its right-wing economic reform programme.
Self Defence has 46 deputies in the 460-seat Sejm, the lower house of the parliament. Without them, the government can count on the support of only 203 deputies - far short of the 231 needed for a majority.
Mr Lepper was also sacked from the government last year in a dispute over the budget - but his party was welcomed back later to shore up the coalition.
His latest dismissal came after the Anti-Corruption Office, a government body, arrested two men in connection with the agricultural corruption scandal
As for Lepper, Kaczynski finally fired him over some tenuous connection to alleged corruption in the Ministry of Agriculture
Allegations - 3 million dollars bribe to reclassify 30 hectares of agricultural land as commercial building land.
Do you know where?
Izabelin area to the north of warsaw, perhaps?
It's a blind guess ... I know nothing.
Again from the Eastern European Review. Whatever people say about Jarosław, he's a smooth operator.
Poland's Prime Minister Understands Financial Threats Control Polish Politicians
Warsaw, Poland 12 July, 2007 Poland's Prime Minister understands that members of the Polish Parliament are prisoners of their own personal finances. And their personal financial situations will dictate their loyalties. So he is free to rule as he wishes without fear of his Government collapsing.
One of the fears voiced by minor parties in Poland since they formed the coalition has been that Kaczynski has been trying to destroy them by taking control of their members. And that appears to be what is happening now.
The current so called Government crisis was planned and engineered by Kaczynski. He set in motion a complex trap for Lepper.
He knew what would happen when Lepper got caught. He planned it. There is no crisis. Things are just as he wants them to be.
He actually expected that he would catch Lepper in his trap. But even though Lepper was apparently warned that he was about to get caught, Kaczynski had enough to have an excuse to fire Lepper so he could split Lepper's party.
Leaving the coalition is simply not an option for most of the people in Lepper's party. Kaczynski knew that better than Lepper when he laid his trap for Lepper.
When Lepper threatened to leave the coalition, he was surprised by the barrage of phone calls and SMS messages from Samoobrona members in Warsaw and the countryside telling him to leave the party in the coalition.
They do not want to lose the jobs that they have because they are members of the coalition. They have big loans for cars, houses, land and more. Leaving the coalition would cost them their coalition related jobs and leave them in financial trouble.
In short order after the "crisis" was proclaimed by the press, a list of Samoobrona and LPR party members and their loans was posted on the internet with commentary that the coalition would survive because the people had loans to pay. See in Polish Beda wczesniejsze wybory parlamentarne?
Samoobrona started to split immediately. Ryszard Czanecki was the first to tell Lepper that Samoobrona should stay in the coalition. And he was soon joined by six others.
Lepper quickly changed his position and said that he would keep Samoobrona in the coalition conditioned on having the evidence against him presented by Friday. But that is only a delaying action since getting the evidence in such a short time is highly unlikely.
Lepper is said to be surprised that the people are not totally loyal to him. This is from a man who has used promissory notes against his party members to enforce discipline!
The whole affair was well planned by Kaczynski.
Though he is ridiculed by the western press, analysts in Poland recognize his brilliance as a politician.
"As Marcin Sobczyk of Interfax Central Europe says the prime minister’s plan to get rid of Lepper while keeping Self-defense party deputies in the coalition has worked successfully.
‘There are reports that Lepper was shocked to see that his party was reluctant to leave the coalition, he was shocked to see that his own deputies were in fact against him, the leader, the founder of his own party. They have already deserted him.
Jacek Kucharczyk of the Institute of Public Affairs thinks that the timing of Lepper’s dismissal was carefully planned. "
It was planned in such a way to make it very difficult for the opposition to act in proportion to what has happened and to wage a counterattack.
Source What Next?
Lepper is hurt and Kaczynski is keeping the pressure on. Making such statements as the coalition is "hanging by a hair" keeps Samoobrona party members looking at their monthly payments.
Kaczynski knows that money talks and bullshit walks.
And he is helping Lepper walk by putting the pressure on the pocketbooks of Lepper's party members. They know that their loyalties to Kaczynski's Government will ensure that they can pay their loans.
They belong to Kaczynski and are now part of his voting machine.
In short, Kaczynski is brilliantly using his understanding of personal finances to create a rubber stamp coalition.