Welcome to the original English language Poland and Polish discussion group board. This message forum is a place where English-speaking Poles, foreigners (expats) living in Poland, and anyone with a genuine interest in Poland can discuss and read the views of others concerning Poland. Subjects include: Polish news and current affairs; Life in Poland; politics; genealogy research; Polish culture and history; advice and tips on visiting Poland; Polish property and investment issues. The aim of our group is to increase awareness of wonderful Poland using the English language and allow and foster the honest debate and exchange of opinions on anything vaguely related to Poland and Polish - positive, negative and/or neutral! To state the obvious: all opinions and views expressed on this site are solely those of their respective authors and are not necessarily those of anyone else! Messages consisting of ads will be deleted.
"That's not my experience. I know a lot of people who have taken out mortgages recently, and most of them (the ones young enough to) have taken 30 years+. You can borrow money over much longer periods here that you would be able to in the UK through retail banks. "
Exactly! That's just what I was saying - that the mortgage market is booming and long-term (25 year+) mortgages are an innovation. A few years ago, banks didn't give them here, now they are.
Polish property prices are still rising.
Polish property prices are still rising.
Thanks for the information Angela..now can we have some evidence please..
In my view, house and apartment prices don't show any sign of going down in Poland. I'm looking at purchasing another apartment and prices appear higher than what they were even before Christmas.
I found an article written this week on the subject:
Polish homebuilder JW Construction says house prices to rise 5 pct
WARSAW (Thomson Financial) - Poland's house prices should hold steady in the first part of this year but gain around around 5 pct at the end of 2008, leading homebuilder J.W. Construction said.
'The company estimates that the average price of real-estate will hold steady for the first few months of 2008 and then at the end of the year we will see growth of around 5 pct,' the company said in a presentation on its results.
'The extraordinary price growth of previous years will not return, but from 2009 housing and property will continue to get more expensive.'
JW Construction has benefited from double-digit growth of Poland's housing prices in recent years, due to rising wages and a booming economy which has encouraged thousands of Poles to take mortgages.
But many analysts have said price growth should slow this year, as new developments come on line and interest rates rise ...........
Rest of article:
Something else on house prices from OberHaus
Polish residential market growing strongly.
Even with interest rates rising, the total volume of mortgage lending in Poland, at 9% of GDP, is still far behind the rest of Central Europe and so banks are eager to continue to give money to young, middle class borrowers.
In all cities demand continues to outstrip supply, and a shortage of both land with planning and construction resources is driving prices of new build flats higher, and will continue to do so.
Warsaw is clearly the most expensive city in Poland, where new apartment prices in the city centre range from 13,500 PLN (3,550 EUR) per sqm to even as high as 34,000 PLN (9,000 EUR) in luxury city centre towers.
The prices of older, secondary market flats in the centre are from 7,500 PLN (1,975 EUR) per sqm to 11,000 PLN (2,900 EUR) per sqm. In the outer districts such as Targówek, Ursus, Rembertów and Wawer new flats are less expansive and average price of new apartments are from 5,800 PLN (1,500 EUR) per sqm to 7,950 PLN (2,100 EUR) per sqm.
2006 saw great price gains as the average price in the capital city exceeded the level of 8,200 PLN (2,150 EUR) per sqm. Residential prices in Warsaw grew 48% last year, while the price of new flats jumped 65%. Prices have slowed somewhat this year, but with demand still outstripping supply, we estimate that by the end of 2007 the average price will reach 10,000 PLN (2,630 EUR) per sqm.
In Warsaw new apartments are sold long before completion, and in many cases before the start of construction. In the whole year 2006 approximately 13,700 apartments were newly built, and about 19,000 flats will be delivered in 2007.
We still observe over demand in every market segment. The most demanded are 2- or 3-room apartments with the space between 55 – 80 sqm. The most important group of buyers are people between 25 and 40 years of age. The clients prefer to buy flats in Mokotów, Bemowo, Ursynów, Wilanów, Wola, Bielany.
Warsaw rent market is diverse, beside popular, low standard apartments there is a big interest in elegant apartments, which are usually used by corporate customers – companies, which rent them for their employees. The most popular districts among lessees are: City Centre, Mokotów and Ursynów, and as far as prestige is concerned, undoubtedly Wilanów.
Residential rents remain stable. Typical monthly rent for 2-room flat, 50-60 sqm in the city center ranges from 2,000 – 4,200 PLN (530 – 1,100 EUR). However on the market of exclusive apartments was observed 5-10% rent increase. Prices for such apartments have reached about 8,000 PLN (2,100 EUR). Yearly yield for exclusive apartments in the city center ranges from 4 to 6 %.
In Krakow the average price of new apartment is currently approximately 8,290 PLN (2,180 EUR) per sqm. For the city centre average residential prices begins at 9,500 PLN (2,500 EUR) per sqm and reaches the price level of 16,160 PLN (4,250 EUR) per sqm to 20,150 PLN (5,300 EUR) per sqm, and in case of exceptionally attractive or luxury premises situated in the Main Market Square 24,700 PLN (6,500 EUR) per sqm. Last year prices of newly finished apartments increased on average by 89%, while thisyear we see about a 30% rise.
Supply of all newly built apartments is still unable to satisfy tremendous demand. In 2006, 3,988 apartments were newly built, and 100 % were sold. We see over 5,000 new flats built in Krakow in 2007.
Almost all new apartments are sold during their development. Most easy to sell are 50 – 60 sqm, in very good locations, not necessarily in the city centre, but with good transport services such as in Bronowice, Krowodrza. Buildings in unique locations, e.g. by the river, in direct neighbourhood to recreational areas or with fantastic view become more and more popular.
Rents have been stable over the last 12 months, and because of growth of apartment rates, yields slipped from over 5 % to 4.3 %. Good city centre flats rent for over 3,800 PLN (1,000 EUR), while the typical two-room modern suburban flats (the most popular rental type) rents for 570 PLN (150 EUR) to 1,520 PLN (400 EUR).
Poznań is currently one of the fastest developing residential markets in Poland. Residential prices grew 20% in 2006 to an average of 4,800 PLN (1,260 EUR) – 11,000 PLN (2,890 EUR) per sqm, and new flat prices grew 60% to an average of 5,800 PLN (1,530 EUR) – 15,000 PLN (3,950 EUR) per sqm. In the suburbs prices of new flats grew 40% to 3,500 PLN (920 EUR) – 4,800 (1,260 EUR) per sqm. The segment of luxury apartments in prestigious locations grows dynamically. Prices of the best apartments reach 15,000 PLN (3,950 EUR) per sqm.
In 2006 over 2,000 apartments were completed in Poznań, and in 2007 we expect 3,500 to be finished. The largest supply of apartments in Poznań is in the suburbs, not too far away from the cite centre. There are very few plots in the centre.
Average rent of 3-room apartment in the centre of 70 sqm, is between 2,500 PLN (660 EUR) – 4,500 PLN (1,180 EUR). Yields in the city centre are estimated at an average of 6%.
Average prices last year grew 76% to 6,300 PLN (1,660 EUR) per sqm. High prices are obtained in the southern districts of Wroclaw – Ołtaszyn, Partynice, Wojszyce, Krzyki, Borek and Dworek. But the highest prices, as in any big city, are in the centre, where the prices are between approximately 8,000 PLN (2,100 EUR) per sqm to 15,500 PLN (4,080 EUR) per sqm for the top class apartments in exceptional locations.
Number of newly built apartments in 2006 was 2,567, 55% more than the year before. We expect over 3,000 units per year will be built in 2007, and more each year thereafter.
Demand is fuelled by easier credit and new job creation. Most demand is for two or three room flats. Growing rental demand comes from employees coming to Wroclaw, and the rent levels are now very close to the rents in Krakow. Yields are 6%. The highest rents are achieved by luxury apartments in the Old Town. Average rents in the centre begin at approximately 3,420 PLN (900 EUR) and reach the level of 6,650 PLN (1,750 EUR), and for apartments in the most prestigious districts, finished in a very high standard - up to 7,600 PLN (2,000 EUR). Rents outside the city centre are 760 PLN (200 EUR) for one-room apartment up to 2,470 PLN (650 EUR) for four-room apartments in new or renovated good standard buildings. As in the other cities, small 1 or 2-room apartments are the most popular ones.
Last year saw 45% growth in prices, and today in Gdańsk new apartments cost 4,700 PLN (1,240 EUR) per sqm to 9,100 PLN (2,395 EUR) per sqm. On the secondary market the prices are 3,700 PLN (970 EUR) per sqm to 9,000 PLN (2,370 EUR) per sqm. The highest prices are obtained in Jelitkowo, Brzeźno, Wrzeszcz and Śródmieście with the Old Town (inner city and old town) districts, where they reach the values from 6,000 PLN (1,580 EUR) per sqm to 11,000 PLN (2,900 EUR) per sqm.
In nearby Lower Sopot prices are twice as high as in Gdańsk that is from 8,000 PLN (2,100 EUR) per sqm up to even 18,000 PLN (4,740 EUR) per sqm. In the remaining districts of Sopot prices of apartments reach from 6,800 PLN (1,790 EUR) per sqm, up to 11,000 PLN (2,900 EUR) per sqm.
In Gdynia the third city in the “Tricity” area the prices are on a similar level as in Gdańsk. The most expensive parts of Gdynia are Kamienna Góra and Orłowo Morskie, where 6,800 PLN (1,790 EUR) per sqm up to even 12,000 PLN (3,160 EUR) per sqm must be paid.
In 2006, in Gdańsk, Gdynia and Sopot 4,986 new apartments were built, but supply has been hindered by the lack of local spatial development plans for numerous locations in particular in Gdynia and Sopot. Even in Gdańsk still only 46% of the city has a master plan. In Gdynia and Sopot only 10% of the city has planning.
The strongest demand is for two- and three-room apartments of average space 50 - 60 sqm, with highest demand in Wrzeszcz, Śródmieście, Zaspa and Przymorze district.
Yields in the city centre are estimated at an average of 6%. High standard apartment in the city centre rents for approx. 3,000 – 4,000 PLN (790 – 1052 EUR), while the typical new two-room suburban flat rents for 800 – 1,300 PLN (210 – 342 EUR).
Residential prices grew 15% in 2006 to 2,900 PLN (760 EUR) per sqm, while the price of new flats grew 30% to 4,200 PLN (1,100 EUR) per sqm. Katowice, can be characterized by quite significant gap between prices on primary and secondary market. In 2007 further price growth is expected as the supply-demand gap is going to be wider.
Only 440 new flats were built in Katowice in 2006 but we expect about 5 % growth in 2007. There is not much to buy and good offers are sold within few days. As the supply is very weak, there is huge potential for new developments in Katowice. The main factors which limit new investment are lack of master plan and limited supply of plots with developed infrastructure.
Residential prices in Łódź jumped 45% to about 3,000 PLN (790 EUR) per sqm, while the price of new flats jumped 60% in 2006 to 4,500 PLN (1,180 EUR) per sqm, and have now passed 5,500 PLN. We believe price will grow another 20% by the end of 2007. Rental yields on newly built apartments are 7 %. Rents are stable.
In 2006 in Łódź, 521 of new flats were delivered, and it is estimated that about 600 to 700 will be delivered in 2007.
New projects of note include U Scheiblera, 420 loft apartments created from a historical factory building by Opal Property Developments at Tymienieckiego Street. Stage I of the investment enjoyed tremendous interest and was sold in a short period of time. The last apartments from the stage I reached the price close to 8,000 PLN (2,100 EUR) per sqm. Currently next stage of investment is in preparation, in which approximately 200 apartments are planned.
Their website: http://www.ober-haus.pl
Hans, I hope you are not trying your hand at real estate and wanting to be a millionaire overnight.
Statistics can be very misleading.. I wonder how many people bought and sold a property within a year and made 50% profit. I don't think property in Poland will increase 50% per year, the bubble will have to burst sooner or later!
The golden rule is never believe in stats given out by real estate/ property developers.
Or rather, read between the lines.
The economic cycle that Poland is in suggests that 2010/11 will be an excellent time for bankruptcy specialists.
House prices won't go down in Poland due to a lack of liquidity. Poles faced with slack demand do not cut their price - they simply withdraw the property because they are not going to move to another part of the country for work (the usual reason for house sales in the UK).
So, if prices are not going to go down - my thesis - the question is, when are they going to rise? I reckon we'll have small rises for the next few years before we have the next mini-boom early next decade.
BTW, a plot has just gone on the market in my village just outside Warsaw. 900 sqm for PLN 500,000. It won't sell fast, but someone will buy it on the premise that a big house costs PLN 400,000 to build and fit out and would sell for 1 million now, and more in the near future.
It seems to me that rental prices here in warsaw are still rising, despite many more people having a second apartment.
One possible reason for this is that an empty apartment can (in the right circumstances) be used as a tax break, so for people who are financially stable, it's only worth renting if the price is high emough.
In my building, sale prices have gone up 150% in 2 years and still seem to be rising, even though every spare bit of land has big new developments on.
In my building, sale prices have gone up 150% in 2 years and still seem to be rising, even though every spare bit of land has big new developments on
Jon thanks for the information, can you please give me one such example please.. ie house bought 2 yrs ago and sold now with a 150% profit??
Some people are saying that most homes in Poland (the good ones)are worth in excess of 1m Zlote.. Could I suggest to any person who has a home in that range to sell up and go to OZ, with that sort of money you will be living in heaven.
The biggest problem in Poland is that most of the morgages are 'arranged' the buyer cannot afford the payments. I think that many of the houses will be repossed in the next few years, the banks must be feeling the strain already.
"Jon thanks for the information, can you please give me one such example please.. ie house bought 2 yrs ago and sold now with a 150% profit??"
Yes of course. Check out the property listings on onet.pl
In May 2005, when I moved into this apartment, the going rate in this building for this type of apartment was 370000 (90sqm, 4 rooms, 2 baths). There are a few for sale now, and none cheaper than 950000.
Come to think of it, that's nearer 200%.
Also, while you're looking at onet.pl (wp.pl is also good), check out the houses as well as flats. Here in Warsaw I'd be surprised if you could find a house worth living in for less than 2 million pln. Which is about 400000 pounds, about right, possible a little cheap, for southern England, and cheap compared with London. Remember that in Warsaw, poor or middle-income people tend not to live in houses, so the market here tends to be at the top end.
You, as an Australian, are used to exceptionslly low house prices, and a culture in which most people live in houses rather than apartments. In Warsaw it is rather different. I also expect a house built for Brisbane or Sydney (should it be dismantled and brought to Warsaw) would be a less than ideal place to spend a Polish winter.
Thanks for your information, If I was living in Poland and suddenly my house was worth 2m zl, I would be thanking my lucky stars and taking the first flight to Oz and buying a most beautiful home, enjoying the best of weather and business conditions.
hmmm. I've noticed when I check Real Estate Property Sites, a lot of properties have been on the market a long time, I've also found properties re advertised at a higher price than was previously advertised (some as much as 300,000 higher than previous) needless to say these properties are still for sale.
The crucial factor is that in the west like Oz, incomes are much higher ie a couple could easily earn in excess of $100,000 per year and a mortgage for a load of some 250,000$ would require some 25,000$. In Poland how much could a couple borrow?? Not much when it comes to the high cost of living in Poland at the moment.
I don't doubt that properties in prime locations will increase but barley charlie, country properties will remain the same.
As per point made by somebody else, Poles get a bee in there bonnet and will not sell unless they get what they want, unfortunately some have been brainwashed by fairy tale real estate agents.
"Thanks for your information, If I was living in Poland and suddenly my house was worth 2m zl, I would be thanking my lucky stars and taking the first flight to Oz and buying a most beautiful home, enjoying the best of weather and business conditions.
I think I would too!
I was visiting a friend yesterday who livss in a studio flat just by Wschodnia Station (usually considered a rough area and cheaper than the rest of the city) and he told me he bought his flat for 100000pln three years ago and is selling it now for 240000.
About houses, there are still great bargains in villages - the further from a big city the better, but the presssure on land prices in Warsaw keeps the prices artificially high.
Cheaper, yes. But a village in the middle of nowhere might not be the best place to live. Does anyone remember the story posted about a longhaired British man who has his house in a Polish village robbed on a regular basis? He knows who does it and the police do nothing. I'll try and find the link.
"HELP....i need some advice...I am an English guy who has bought an old farm on the edge of a small village...The farm is in need of many repairs , but until i sell a house in UK i don't have money to make these repairs....Because i don't speak Polish very well i am not able to earn very much money , just a little teaching English..Life is hard sometimes , and in order to pay bills i sometimes go days at a time without food , the longest was ten days , no eating....I have made many good friends among the people of my village despite the language problem , but the problem is that because i am English , and just happen to own a Harley motorcycle , they think i am rich...This is a bit of a joke really , as most of them don,t go without food as often as i do....Because of this belief , some people from the village have made two visits to my farm when i was out...The first time they took my mobile phone , camera,s and video camera...The second time they took all my tools that i need to repair my bike and car , and my home...I went with a friend to the Police , but on both occaisions nothing happened despite the fact i told them i knew who had done this....So Polish people please advise me...What do i do about these bandits , to punish them , and deter others from taking what little i have left....Please understand i am not saying all Polish are thieves , i have many special friends in Poland , these bandits are scum , we have such people in UK also , its just that in UK i would know what to do, in Poland i am stranger , and a bit alone...what do i do...?"
Hans that bloke is a British no hoper, I think he wanted a easy ride in Poland. He couldn't find work etc.
I've said it before and I'll say it again - the housing market in Poland is very diverse. Gorzow and Zielona Gora are in the same Voivodeship and are not too far apart, but the same flat would be almost 100K more expensive in ZG, simply because of supply and demand. Likewise, my house would be worth 30% more in Gorzow, because there are very few houses inside the city limits.
I think the market will continue to grow, albeit at a slower rate. Just because a boom has ended it doesn't mean a recession has taken hold.
"He couldn't find work etc. "
That's funny to you is it offbeat?
Poles want to live in new houses and flats in cities. The same was true in the UK in the 60s and 70s. Time will change, country cottages 'dumps' are still dirt cheap, and a fantastic investment. Rich Poles will soon be brave anough to venture out of the cities to live. My summer house gets robbed on a regular basis, my storage container on my land gets vandalised but I think it pay off in the end. Looking at a couple of houses at the moment, about £8,000 each, they can't go down, the building land they sit on is worth more.
Still bargains to be had, without spending a fortune.
Be brave, head for the vilages, tolk to the inbreads
some of them are only happy to sell.
I was offered a couple of barns very cheap. Barn conversion anyone?
"The first time they took my mobile phone , camera,s and video camera...The second time they took all my tools that i need to repair my bike and car , and my home...I went with a friend to the Police , but on both occaisions nothing happened despite the fact i told them i knew who had done this...., we have such people in UK also , its just that in UK i would know what to do, in Poland i am stranger , and a bit alone...what do i do...?""
Erm..what does he mean by saying he knows what to do in the UK??? I don't know of anyone who has obtained redress through the Police in the UK for house thefts or ever had their property returned. I used to work with someone who had her house broken into and ransacked and then they returned a few days later to take the stuff they couldn't carry the first time... In the UK people claim it back through contents insurance. Is he asking people to tell him how to obtain contents insurance in Poland..>???
I would LOVE IT (Keegan style) if I could afford to do a barn conversion. Had the opportunity a couple of years ago when we were house hunting, but needed a place to live rather than a project.
15 grand bought a tumbledown house with barn with 3000m2 of land. Estate agent recommended getting some locals to demolish the house (free of charge - they keep the bricks) and doing up the barn. Went back about a month ago to see the place and the new owner had done exactly the opposite
"He couldn't find work etc. "
That's funny to you is it offbeat?
Well its funny in the fact that this Englishman (like so many others) fail to do there homework.. The fact is that this man obviously purchased a property cheap and thought getting a job would be no problem.. Because your speak English doesn't mean that you can get a job teaching at a Polish School, Finding word in a country town is hard and in many ways is a closed shop... Poles bribe to get a job or a job is given to somebody who you know,(friend to a friend basis)
Offbeat is right - this guy obviously did no homework whatsoever. Who in their right mind would buy a rundown farm in a foreign country where you don't speak the language. Have no money and no real hope of earning money? Not eating for 10 days, his belongings being systematically stolen by local villagers. It's all very sad
Did anybody see that TV prog on Channel 4 about a working class Essex couple who buy a rundown palace or chateau in Eastern Europe?
Perhaps we should invite him to join the forum?
On a more serious point and getting back to the topic, In my neck of the woods its seems the property market has peaked and a downturn is predicted.
This is being linked to the sub prime mortgage collapse in the US. (keep in mind that we have less than 4% unemployment and the average wage is 56,000A$)
It seems to me that if things get worse Poland will follow if it hasn't already. The prices of homes in Poland are on par with that of prices in Australia ( I know you can buy a cheap place in the back of no where)
It seems the ones hardest hit will be those who have pre paid for a apartment or purchased property just recently.
Lets not kid ourselves the US economy is finished, its like blowing up a balloon with a hole in it!
“the US economy is finished”
Most people just can’t comprehend how complex the U.S. economy is: perhaps this graphic will assist.
"The US economy is finished"
Thank you for that witticism - I needed cheering up and this rather bizarre remark did the trick!
Thank you for that witticism - I needed cheering up and this rather bizarre remark did the trick!
You will need more than cheering up when reality finally hits the economic scene. The ones hardest hit will be those who have been brainwashed by US propaganda.
You don't have to be boy genius to see that a major downturn is about to take place, Poland may to a certain extent be buffered but who knows.
Speculators and Real Estate Agents will undoubtedly will still be flying the flag of boom.
“You will need more than cheering up when reality finally hits the economic scene. The ones hardest hit will be those who have been brainwashed by US propaganda.”
Do you actually know anyone who lives and makes money in the US that agrees with these statements? Or are you repeating what you overheard on the news?
The reality is that those who had no business buying homes became homeowners because of cheap $$$ (low interest rates). Mortgage defaults in the US are still under 5%...how is that disastrous?
It is most amusing to see America haters get sooo excited over the current housing slump taking place in the States.
There are many areas that have been hit hard, like Ohio. There are many areas that are still booming, like parts of Florida, California, North Carolina, Tennessee, Colorado... The truth is that it’s far from doom and gloom. Recession is a normal part of the economic cycle.
A lot of this is reminiscent of the .com bubble bursting 7 years ago. Same doomsayers prophesized disaster.
There is no cure for malcontents. Their glass is always half empty.
There is no cure for malcontents. Their glass is always half empty.
Nice to see you are in a good mood, undoubtedly still holding your hand on heart and whistling dixie.
Lets wait and see what happens, you may care to read what the previous Governor of the Reserve Bank says about America's economic climate, you may do yourself a favour and stop listening to your pin up boy G.W Bush.
If you think that homes will increase in leaps and bounds well you must believe that pigs fly.
(on a lighter note Nice to have you back on the forum Mike C)
on a lighter note Nice to have you back on the forum Mike C
Seconded. It's good to have an informed Polish American perspective on subjects discussed and in the news.
I have to admit that I don't know much about problems with the US property market, except what I read here and other places, but, for me and many others property will always be a sound long-term investment.
Polish prices are though still comparatively good value for Europe.
Thanks fellas. I’ve been traveling a lot lately and haven’t had time to read the blogs.
“Nice to see you are in a good mood, undoubtedly still holding your hand on heart and whistling dixie.”
Now that’s funny You forgot about Jack Daniels
Look here, in general property market in the US is not that bad. Again, this is the result of very low interest rates and financially illiterate people buying homes on credit. It had to happen. Last real estate slump took place in the late 80’s/early 90’s. It bounced back…just as this will.
As far as the former Fed Chairman – I’m assuming you are referring to Greenspan – many on Wall Street feel he is to blame for the current crisis…he micromanaged the economy for 20 years. There are many who even claim that he is a central planner.
BTW, I read his latest book, The Age of Turbulence. There is nothing really new in there. In the US, the greatest transfer of wealth is about to take place (since JP Morgan brought in British capital in the early 20th century) caused by retiring baby boomers. It will be anything but stable, but at the same time it will create many opportunities.
Ironically, Poland is in good shape because the zloty will continue to rise and as Neil said, you still get far more value than you would in Western Europe. Keep in mind that Poland has never had a real estate bull market (nor a free market economy)in its modern history. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next 5 years.
The Warsaw suburbs are already outrageously expensive and it's going to get even better.
Slight downturn in 2011 on the cards, apparently. It's the cycle.