Poland and Polish Discussion Group and Forum

Welcome to the original English language Poland and Polish discussion group board. This message forum is a place where English-speaking Poles, foreigners (expats) living in Poland, and anyone with a genuine interest in Poland can discuss and read the views of others concerning Poland. Subjects include: Polish news and current affairs; Life in Poland; politics; genealogy research; Polish culture and history; advice and tips on visiting Poland; Polish property and investment issues. The aim of our group is to increase awareness of wonderful Poland using the English language and allow and foster the honest debate and exchange of opinions on anything vaguely related to Poland and Polish - positive, negative and/or neutral! To state the obvious: all opinions and views expressed on this site are solely those of their respective authors and are not necessarily those of anyone else! Messages consisting of ads will be deleted.

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Poland and Polish Discussion Group and Forum
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Re: WIG20 - will it predict the worldwide Stock Market Crash of 2009?

I chatted with a foreign friend on the train this morning about when to buy gold. He expects deflation followed by hyperinflation. He's a financial analyst by the way. I'm an optimist - I just expect deflation, mass unemployment, a Great Depression and strong inflation 18 months ahead!

I'm waiting for deflation to send gold prices down before buying. This crisis is like watching a train crash in slow-mo!!

I think Poland is in a pretty good position and this negative prediction will never happen. Of the many reasons to give, lets say low worker income and little superanuation contributions has made Poland escape a decline and a recession.

Re: WIG20 - will it predict the worldwide Stock Market Crash of 2009?

My friend, for the record, Poland is not an island and we are just about to sink into a worldwide depression which will be devastating for the world economy. That includes Poland.

I know that sounds unreal - back in 1930 President Hoover thought the worst was over already after a huge stock market rise. FDR then got voted in and made the Depression longer by his fancy spending plans (the US got hit again in 1937). Obama's spending plans dwarf FDR's, and the US, like the UK, Japan and the EU are bust - so the situation now is actually WORSE than then.

You know what I read in the Daily Telegraph today, August 6, 2009?
'Worst of recession over', according to leading UK forecaster
NIESR said it hoped May would prove to be the trough of economic activity. “Output is stabilising and, in the absence of further shocks, the period of sharp recession is over.”

NIESR’s optimism was echoed by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), which expects house prices to rise this year, in a startling reversal of its forecast that prices would plunge 10pc to 15pc in 2009."

These forecasters have no idea what is coming - a tsunami is on the horizon that historians will write about in the future. "Never again" they will write ... "How could they have ignored the evidence?"
Asset-destroying deflation for 2 years followed by strong inflation (not hyperinflation), credit implosion, corporate bankruptcies, business projects cancelled (watch commercial real estate stop dead), high unemployment, massive govt cuts, possible reduction in the size of the Eurozone (no chance of Poland joining until 2018/20 - perhaps Portugal/Greece leaving??), civil unrest ...

Stock markets to fall 50% (more?), dollar to rise for a year or so, gold might be the future thereafter. Things will be different and we will look back on these strange times wondering how everything could have gone so wrong.