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Poland's GDP Rises Amid Strong Exports

From today's Wall Street Journal...

DECEMBER 1, 2009
Poland's GDP Rises Amid Strong Exports

WARSAW -- Poland, which appears to have skirted the global downturn, posted faster expansion in the third quarter, helped by strong exports and private consumption.

Poland's third-quarter gross domestic product rose 1.7% from the year-earlier period, and followed a 1.1% rate in the second quarter, according to a preliminary estimate by the Central Statistical Office.

The data, which were better than expected, topped figures from the Czech Republic, where the economy contracted 4.1% in the third quarter, and Hungary, where it shrank 7.2%.

Czech industrial-output data showed continued contraction at the start of the current quarter. Industrial production fell 7.3% in October, after an 11.9% decline in September, preliminary figures from the Czech statistics office showed.

Jan Czekaj, a member of the National Bank of Poland's Monetary Policy Council, said on business-news channel TVN CNBC Monday that "initial figures show the [fourth-quarter] growth rate will be similar to that of the third quarter, so probably 1.5%-2%."
The Polish Economy Ministry sounded a more-optimistic note, saying the GDP will likely grow 2.5% from a year earlier in the fourth quarter and 1.5% for all of 2009.

As in previous quarters, net exports remained the key driving force behind the GDP growth, contributing three percentage points to the growth rate.
But Mr. Czekaj turned cautious when looking further into the future, referring to Poland's reliance on a global economic rebound.

"The economy is accelerating and it's positive, but we should also keep in mind where this growth comes from," he said.

Poland's private consumption rose 2.2% in the third quarter, an improvement from the previous quarter. But that may prove to be a one-time advance related to the zloty's weakness in the first half of the year, which prompted Poles to spend holidays in Poland rather than abroad, boosting consumption.

Re: Poland's GDP Rises Amid Strong Exports

Difficult to make out how these figures reflect the current economic situation in Poland, one has to digest the fact that the current unemployment rate in Poland is 11.1 and rising. Low wages and higher cost must make local Poles laugh at any positive figures

Re: Poland's GDP Rises Amid Strong Exports

Unemployed C-grade staff are rushing to the headhunters.
I know this first-hand.