Arrieta last year earned 431 pts but CBS projects him at 531 in 2018. The guy has seen his ERA and WHIP go up 3 straight year and his number of starts (33/31/30), innings and Ks drop 3 straight years. In fact in 2017 he gave up the exact same number of hits and more BB than 2015 even though he pitched 60 less innings. The other 5 year of his career he never started more than 25 games.

Am I missing something or why the projected big bounce back?

Maybe they're projecting he goes to the Astros. lol

Yeah, doesn't make any sense.

Here is another odd one. Trea Turner is ranked by CBS the #2 SS but they are projecting he gets 226 points. They seem to think he will only play 66 games even though he was healthy at the end of the year. If that is the 2nd best SS score it is going to be a very strange year for all SS.

You may of recently read that CBS won't have the 2018 projections until January. What you see now is going off 3 year averages.