I saw a projection today for Rizzo that made me laugh. It could happen but ... it was for 28 HR. Now that is in the ballpark but Rizzo was hit 32 HR in 3 of last 4 years and the other year was 31. Why on earth would you project 28? It is "only" 4 less so the random gust of air theory sure makes it possible but on the other hand it is about 13% less. That seems like a big drop even if you see a down year coming which at 28 YO I hope they don't.
Sometimes I wonder how these folks create projections? Do they just pull numbers out of a hat?
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